The Sunk Cost Fallacy of the GOP

In my mid-20s, I was in Las Vegas surrounded by a group of guys my age who’d achieved various but not insignificant amounts of success in their lives. They talked about their upward momentum, where they saw their careers going, and the plans they put in place to reach those goals. I took that moment to look inward and realize I was investing time and effort into a job that was absolutely stagnant. I was comfortable but not moving anywhere. In the back of my mind, I knew I needed to leave the position. But the years I’d already put into the job made me hesitate, and it felt wholly disconcerting to think about changing careers.

That I didn’t leave the job years earlier was an example of sunk cost fallacy, a cognitive bias that leads individuals to make decisions based on past investments, even when those investments are no longer relevant to the current situation or the future outcome. It's essentially the idea that people often continue investing time, money, or resources into something simply because they have already invested a significant amount rather than objectively evaluating the situation and considering whether further investment is truly beneficial. Eventually, I did leave the job, and while unnerving at first, it led me to not only advance my professional life but introduced me to my wife. (Rhyme, not intentional.) Walking away from those sunken costs was the best decision I ever made in my life, despite how heartbreaking and strange it made me feel.

Look, I’ve taken a lot of shots at not only the Republican Party but Donald Trump. They’ve become easy targets, especially as they push the foundations of our country to the edge of a precipice that we may quickly fall off of. But the one question I’ve always had is why Donald Trump? Why this con artist blowhard with a lack of decency, morals, honesty, and ideas? Why has the GOP gone all in on him? He’s volatile, and his outbursts seem to push undecided voters away from him. They would have had a better and more stable candidate with Nikki Haley. Alas, the reason they’ve stuck with the anthropomorphic orange Cheeto is simple: the GOP has a sunk-cost fallacy with him.

Donald Trump's entry into politics and his subsequent rise within the GOP provides a prime example of the sunk cost fallacy in action. Initially seen as an outsider with unconventional views, Trump's unorthodox candidacy gained traction despite skepticism from within the Republican establishment. As Trump's campaign gained momentum, the GOP faced a dilemma: whether to embrace or reject him.

One of the key factors driving the GOP's reluctance to disassociate from Trump was the significant investment of political capital made by party leaders and supporters. Trump's candidacy represented a departure from traditional Republican values and rhetoric, yet many within the party chose to support him to avoid the perception of disunity or betrayal. Moreover, Trump's success in the Republican primaries further entrenched the sunk cost fallacy within the GOP. As Trump accumulated delegates and secured victories, the party became increasingly committed to his candidacy despite reservations about his temperament, policies, and controversial statements.

Throughout Trump's candidacy and presidency, the sunk cost fallacy influenced the GOP's decision-making in various ways. Party leaders and elected officials often found themselves defending or downplaying Trump's actions and policies, even when they conflicted with conservative principles or norms. This was driven, in part, by the desire to justify past support for Trump and avoid admitting any perceived mistakes. Additionally, the sunk cost fallacy contributed to the polarization within the GOP, as dissenting voices were marginalized or silenced in favor of maintaining party cohesion. (Hence, why Nikki Haley isn’t on the ticket) Trump's ability to command loyalty from his base further reinforced the GOP's commitment to his leadership despite growing concerns about his impact on the party's long-term prospects.

Let’s assume (or pray), Donald Trump is not elected in November. How does the GOP finally shed Donald Trump and realign with something and someone who doesn’t contradict their core values?

Acknowledge Mistakes: The GOP must acknowledge the mistakes and missteps made during Trump's tenure, including instances where the party compromised its principles or enabled divisive rhetoric. Recognizing past errors is essential for rebuilding trust with voters and demonstrating a commitment to accountability and integrity.

Focus on Policy: Shifting the focus from personality to policy can help the GOP move beyond Trump's shadow. Emphasizing concrete policy proposals and solutions to pressing issues such as healthcare, immigration, and the economy can demonstrate the party's commitment to governance and problem-solving.

Foster New Leadership: Cultivating a new generation of GOP leaders is crucial for moving on from Trump. Encouraging fresh voices and diverse perspectives can help the party appeal to a broader range of voters and demonstrate a commitment to inclusivity and innovation.

Reconnect with Core Values: Reaffirming the GOP's core values and principles, such as limited government, individual liberty, and fiscal responsibility, can provide a roadmap for the party's future direction. By returning to its ideological roots, the GOP can reaffirm its identity and appeal to disaffected voters.

Build Coalitions: Building coalitions with like-minded individuals and groups, both within and outside the party, can help the GOP broaden its appeal and strengthen its electoral prospects. By reaching out to diverse communities and engaging with various perspectives, the GOP can demonstrate its commitment to representing all Americans.

Prioritize Unity: Fostering unity within the party is essential for moving forward from the Trump era. While disagreements are inevitable, finding common ground and working towards shared goals can help the GOP rebuild trust and cohesion among its members and supporters.

Appeal to Independents and Moderates: Broadening the GOP's appeal beyond its traditional base is crucial for long-term electoral success. By appealing to independent and moderate voters with pragmatic solutions and inclusive messaging, the GOP can expand its electoral coalition and compete more effectively in diverse political landscapes.

Overall, moving on from Donald Trump requires the GOP to undertake a process of introspection, renewal, and redefinition. They may have sunk a tremendous amount of, well, everything into Trump, but their return on investment seems to be dwindling. Turning their backs on him, leaving the situation, and beginning something new will help them become a stronger party. It’ll be hard and unnerving for some, but it just might be the best decision they ever made.